Using prediction polling for infectious disease forecasting

Grey Prediction Model for Forecasting Electricity consumption

Accurate prediction of the future electricity consumption is crucial for production electricity management. Since the storage of electrical energy is very difficult, reliable and accurate prediction of power consumption is important. Different approaches for this purpose were used. In this paper, Grey model (1,1) based on grey system theory has been used for forecasting results. Annual electric...

A Comparison of Forecasting Methods: Fundamentals, Polling, Prediction Markets, and Experts∗

We compare Oscar forecasts derived from four data types (fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and domain experts) across three attributes (accuracy, timeliness and cost effectiveness). Fundamentals-based forecasts are relatively expensive to construct, an attribute the academic literature frequently ignores, and update slowly over time, constraining their accuracy. However, fundamentals p...

Forecasting high-priority infectious disease surveillance regions: a socioeconomic model.

BACKGROUND Few researchers have assessed the relationships between socioeconomic inequality and infectious disease outbreaks at the population level globally. We use a socioeconomic model to forecast national annual rates of infectious disease outbreaks. METHODS We constructed a multivariate mixed-effects Poisson model of the number of times a given country was the origin of an outbreak in a ...

Efficacy of Experimental Inactivated Vaccine for Infectious Bronchitis Disease

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets ha...